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As on Oct 18, 2021 12:00 AM Your results on : Mid Session    
Market Speaks: IEA Says World Oil Supply Has Resumed Uptrend
18-Oct-2021 (15:56)

The International Energy Agency or IEA noted in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) that the ongoing energy crisis has prompted a switch to oil that could boost demand by 500 kb/d compared with normal conditions. This contributed to an upward revision to our 2021 and 2022 forecast, by 170 kb/d and 210 kb/d respectively. Global oil demand is now forecast to rise by 5.5 mb/d in 2021 and 3.3 mb/d in 2022 when it reaches 99.6 mb/d, slightly above pre-Covid levels.

IEA noted that world oil supply has resumed its uptrend as OPEC+ continues to unwind cuts, the US bounces back from Hurricane Ida and maintenance winds down. From September through end-2021, global output is set to rise 2.7 mb/d with OPEC+ accounting for 1.5 mb/d and non-OPEC+ pumping the rest. Total oil output fell 260 kb/d in September to 96 mb/d, led by steeper US hurricane losses.

Global refinery activity in 3Q21 continued to disappoint, with lower throughputs in China and India in August only partially offset by a stronger performance in OECD Asia and Europe. Implied 3Q21 refined product balances show the largest draw in eight years, which explains the strong increase in refinery margins in September despite significantly higher crude prices.

OECD total industry stocks drew by 28 mb in August to 2 824 mb, 162 mb below pre-Covid five-year average. Preliminary September data for the US, Europe and Japan show on-land industry stocks fell by a further 23 mb. Crude oil held in floating storage decreased by 8.5 mb to 98 mb in August.

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