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As on May 24, 2019 12:00 AM Your results on : Currency News    
Economic Buzz: IMF Sees Russia Growing At 1.4%, Urges Focus On Domestic Reforms To Improve Potential
24-May-2019 (16:49)

Russia’s growth prospects will depend on the strength of domestic policies and reforms. GDP growth in the past three years averaged 1.4% and is projected at a similar rate in 2019, according to a latest update from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). External support is expected to be limited, as sanctions, global political and trade uncertainty and lower oil prices have replaced the favorable external conditions that contributed to rapid growth in the 2000s boom. Thus Russia now needs to focus on domestic reforms to improve growth potential.

A key building block is the credible macroeconomic framework the authorities have established since 2014, in difficult circumstances, in the form of inflation targeting, exchange rate flexibility and the fiscal rule. These have helped weather external shocks and reduce uncertainty about the domestic environment. Improvements in financial sector soundness put banks in a better position to support growth. And the 2018 pension reform will help offset the negative demographic trend in labor markets.

Beyond these factors, stronger medium-term growth will require an acceleration of structural reforms to improve the working of the economy. The National Projects announced in 2018 have potential to reinvigorate activity, but only if they are implemented effectively and complemented with far-reaching efforts to strengthen competition, roll back the state and improve state-owned enterprise efficiency.

The fund further notes that Russia’s monetary policy has been successful in addressing potential shocks to price stability, and easing now appears appropriate. The monetary policy stance is estimated to be moderately tight. The VAT increase has had a lower-than-expected impact on headline inflation, and the recent slight appreciation of the ruble and stability of domestic fuel prices reduce inflationary pressures.

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